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CBRT Market Participants Survey: 2021 year-end inflation expectation at 17.63%..

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In the CBRT October Market Participants Survey, the current year-end inflation expectation was 17.63%. When we look at the short-term inflation expectations; October inflation is expected to be 1.94%, November inflation to 1.18% and December inflation to 0.94%. If inflation rises in line with the expectations in these months, annual inflation in October, November and December will be 19.36%, 18.05% and 17.69%, respectively.

 

In addition to global inflation trends; Factors such as the weak lira, the effect of domestic demand, and the deterioration in inflation expectations also increase the risks. Therefore, it is necessary to add local factors to factors such as supply problems and energy prices, which cause deviations in inflation risks. In particular, the reaction of the policy will probably be in the form of more loosening, which will increase the inflation due to import costs in line with the exchange rate movements it will create. At this point, we think that the inflation equilibrium point may be higher than the official expectations and inflationary pressure may increase.

 

According to the average inflation forecasts for the next 12 and 24 months, inflation is expected to be 13.91% and 11.27%, respectively. Thus, the average of inflation expectations for the next 12 and 24 months became 12.59%.

 

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Interest rate expectations in the Repo and Reverse Repo Market were 17.82% for the end of the month. The market predicts the one-week repo rate, which is also the policy rate of the Central Bank, as 17.63%, 16.60, 14.34 and 12.38% in the current month and 3, 12 and 24 month future expectations, respectively.

 

The Central Bank may be on the path of premature easing and unorthodox practice in terms of discourse and action. In the MPC to be held next week, we expect a further 50 basis point rate cut and the policy rate to be reduced to 16.50% towards the end of the year, despite the increasing inflation risks and the deteriorating outlook. At this stage, the shift of the focus of the inflation rate, which will be considered as an indicator by the Central Bank, to the core C indicator constitutes the most important basis for this; It also reveals that the rhetorical growth dynamics and the real sector factor used within the scope of the slowdown in the trend in commercial loans more than expected due to monetary tightening are also taken into account.

 

We see improvement in growth prospects. It is seen that the 2021 GDP expectation, which was 8.2% in the previous survey period, increased to 8.9%. The forecast for 2022 was 4.2% growth in the October survey period. Although it is predicted that the economy will grow by 9% this year in the MTP, 5% for 2022 and 5.5% for 2023 and beyond were made for the following years. While a strong course was observed in the leading indicators of growth; In the August data, it was observed that the seasonal contraction seen in the previous month was reversed in terms of industrial production. The increasing contribution of the service sector, the positive foreign demand image and the still active consumption trends with the production line; It enables us to keep our growth projections high despite the reservations stemming from global factors.

 

Exchange rate expectations were 9.22 for the end of 2021. We see that the exchange rate expectations for the next 12 months are 10.01.

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