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China: Inflation, RRs and monetary policy flexibility

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While consumer inflation in China was 0.7% in September, below the expected 0.8%, producer inflation, which is the main problem, has moved from 9.5% to 10.7%. While costs increase the pressure on PPI, low consumption causes CPI to remain very low. For this reason, the difference has widened, which is now pushing companies rather than consumers. If we consider China’s restrictive economic measures against companies, it becomes clear that it may not be just the real estate crisis. Material prices are increasing, both market conditions and financial constraints prevent companies from increasing prices. While this is happening, profit margins are falling, factory activity is slowing down as there is no demand and production is more expensive.

 

This mismatch is likely to emerge as material shortages increase inflationary pressure on factory production. With the reduction of the Covid-19 epidemic, the fact that consumption will be made more comfortable may provide some normalization in the gap. This would mean homogeneous inflationary pressure, as it would bring consumer inflation closer to producer inflation. Against this; production also tends to slow down. There is also a slowdown in loans due to the economic situation and also the crisis potential of the financial sector (Companies are now more risky and therefore the credit mechanism has slowed down). The crisis reflected on Evergrande and other real estate companies is also a problem for creditors. Again, the PBOC will seek to lower RRRs to speed up loans.

 

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