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US: S&P Case Shiller index points to periodic slowdown in house prices

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In the US, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price NSA Index reported a year-on-year increase of 19.1% in October. Before seasonal adjustment, the US National Index rose 0.8% month-on-month in October, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both gained 0.8%. Following seasonal adjustment, the US National Index was up 1% month-on-month, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites were up 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively.

 

In October 2021, U.S. home prices rose significantly, but at a slowing rate. Housing and rent are among the most important components of inflation. If we consider that the movement in housing prices is mostly due to the difficulties in raw material supply and the increasing costs to a large extent; Especially the recent inflationary price movements had a slowing effect on housing construction. Because existing stocks need to be advanced for the progress of the sector and stock accumulation is not a desirable situation due to construction costs. For example, there were mandatory location changes in the Covid pandemic, especially the tendency for detached and out-of-town houses has increased. The continuation of the pandemic may cause the current supply problems to continue.

 

The tightening in financial conditions will also be important in terms of housing demand. Because mortgage rates tend to increase and the actions of the Fed next year will undoubtedly increase financing costs. Now the impact here is likely negative for industry progress as it could slow housing demand. However, if the economy is recovering, the pandemic is losing its effect, and employment and real incomes are increasing, it will not be a problem. It is necessary to look at the issue in two dimensions, whether tapering is forced or whether the economic recovery also contributes to this, this is important.

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