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Turkey: Manufacturing confidence increases slightly, CCR decreases

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We observe that the trend of staying above the threshold level and pandemic level continues in the February real sector confidence index data announced by the Central Bank. While RSCI increased by 0.3 points to 109.8 in February; The seasonally adjusted RSCI, on the other hand, decreased by 2 points to 109.9.

 

In this period, the manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate decreased by 1 point to 76.6%; The seasonally adjusted CUR, on the other hand, was 77.2%.

 

When the diffusion indices of the survey questions that make up the index are analyzed, it is seen that the production volume in the next three months, the export order amount in the next three months, fixed capital investment expenditures and the total employment index in the next three months have an upward effect on the total evaluations. The total order amount in the last three months, the total current order amount index, the general trend and the evaluations of the current product inventory affected the index downwards.

 

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Expectations regarding financial easing continue to be influential in the axis of growth-oriented fiscal policies. In this context, factors such as inflation and real wage increases are still at the center in terms of the purchasing power of individuals in general, and the cumulative effect of previous exchange rate movements is still seen in the confidence index indicators over sectoral activity. In the upcoming period, the desire to keep interest rates low along with credit expansion may create uncertainties regarding price and cost variability in the inflation environment.

 

On the growth side, foreign demand continues to be supportive. On the other hand, the energy supply problem, which has recently emerged with geopolitical risks, has an important place in terms of industrial activity in the Euro Area. We will look at whether the partial slowdown effects of flash PMIs, one of the leading growth indicators of the Euro Zone, which have a decisive position in the axis of foreign demand, will deepen on the manufacturing sector. On the other hand, general economic activity still continues to be in a position that keeps foreign demand strong. We will observe the effects of the problems originating from Russia on the energy supply and the direct power requirement of the industrial sector in the country.

 

We still care about the investment effect in terms of sustainable growth effect. For this reason, the macro environment should remain stable and predictable in the production capacity and employment trends of firms. Manufacturing sector activity remained in the growth zone above the threshold as indicated by PMI data in January, but pointed to a loss of momentum from 52.1 to 50.5. We can observe the partial decrease effect in the leading indicators of February.

 

In terms of growth, we calculate that we closed 2021 with a strong momentum of 10.8%. Regarding the year 2022, we are more cautious within the framework of the global supply network, geopolitical risks and macroeconomic developments and we evaluate the downside risk in a growth path that can be normalized in the 4% band.

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