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CBRT: Central bank intervenes in the FX markets for the second time in three days

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It was stated that the Central Bank intervened in the markets and sold foreign currency due to “unhealthy price formations”. Thus, a similar move was made after Wednesday, the first intervention by the Central bank since 2014.

 

As long as this level of volatility continues in the currency, similar moves may come. There is still significant volatility as the exchange rate has gone above Wednesday’s first response levels. It is estimated that the first response is around 500 million USD through sales, and around 1 billion USD through sales + futures market. Today’s move is probably below this amount. Of course, the movement breakdown reveals a clearer account, it is understood that these moves were made to bring the exchange rate down during the day. Therefore, if the exchange rate rises again, similar interventions may come.

 

If we consider the extent of inflation in the data released today and where it can rise; In an environment where negative real returns continue to deepen, we do not expect the shift from TRY to dollar to end. With the rate cut expectations continuing despite high inflation expectations, it is unlikely that the exchange rate movement will turn down continuously due to the deepening negative real returns. In interventions through foreign exchange sales, we generally see a short-term decline in the exchange rate, and a rise again after the intraday dip.

 

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Of course, rather than the level of the rate, the excessively high, volatile and unconventional movement is disturbing. This, of course, makes it difficult to make decisions and calculate, from savers to companies that set year-end budgets. Since the exchange rate cannot be predicted, the dollarization trend does not reverse either. In a broad perspective, since the predictability of the dollar is less in terms of its functions, it is more preferable not to take risks. There is no clear phenomenon in terms of FX and local currency rotation, because there is a possibility that some amount may slip out of the system. As the household exchange rate rises, companies may also make partial sales during payment periods, but we do not expect a long-term FX settlement.

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