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CBRT: Central Bank says “Price formation in FX markets not realistic”

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In the statement made by the Central Bank, it was stated that Turkey applies a floating exchange rate regime and does not commit to any exchange rate level.

 

·        Exchange rates are determined according to supply and demand conditions according to free market dynamics.

·        Under certain conditions, the central bank can intervene in excessive volatility without targeting any permanent direction.

·        Unhealthy price formations, which are unrealistic and completely disconnected from economic fundamentals, are observed in foreign exchange markets.

·        The Central Bank considered it necessary to warn companies and citizens against possible losses by trading with values ​​completely disconnected from the economic fundamentals in extremely volatile market conditions.

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We see unusual movements in foreign exchange. Of course, at this point, the lack of interest support in terms of economic fundamentals is the most important reason for the depreciation of the lira; Especially, there is an extreme movement triggered by derivative transactions. A statement from the Central Bank has been published at the point of intraday volatility, which is up to 10% and can be seen rarely. It should be noted that at this point, the Central Bank’s direct exchange rate targeting and direction setting are not included in the official policy implementation. However, in the context of the degree of volatility, it is difficult and unsustainable to achieve macroeconomic balances, especially inflation, and to move towards policy targets.

 

If we consider verbal guidance as an option; We do not expect a permanent cooling due to the loosening direction of the interest rate policy, the easing of 400 basis points in total and the policy rate set well below the inflation rate. On the use of reserves; We are of the opinion that the available reserve is not sufficient to ensure a continuous decrease in foreign currency exchange rates. Financial market volatility is pushing the policy course and this situation reveals the risk of deepening of the exchange rate – inflation – interest rate spiral. Insufficient interest rates lead to a worthless and volatile lira, followed by difficulty in price formation, inflation, deteriorating expectations and more inflation cycles.

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