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China: 4Q21 GDP grows 4% YoY

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In China, GDP grew by 4% in 4Q21 compared to the same period of the previous year; Although it was above the expected 3.3%, it remained below the growth performance of the previous quarter 4.9%. The GDP slowdown thus extended to 4% towards the end of 2021. While the growth is pushed below the 5% scale, the effects of the real estate sector in the crisis and the decreasing consumption expenditures on the growth are felt. This was the slowest pace since the growth that fell to 3.2% in 2Q20, when Covid-19 upset the economy for the first time; the full-year expansion (YTD) was 8.1%. Periodic GDP growth, on the other hand, was 1.6% in 4Q21.

 

When we look at more frequent data; While the annual change in retail sales was 1.7% in December, industrial production increased by 3.8% in December. Industrial production growth, which was close to 12% in the first three quarters of the year, slowed to 3.5% in October and 3.8% in November. Service sector activity, on the other hand, grew by 16.3% in the first three quarters, up 3.8% year-on-year in October and 3.1% in November. There seems to have been a further slowdown in December due to the blow from virus outbreaks and containment measures. Industry and service sector outputs reveal the slowdown in growth. January-December fixed asset investment increased by 4.9%, while January-December real estate investment increased by 4.4%. Compared to the previous data period (January-November period), there is a slowdown from 5.2% in the first and 6% in the second. It reveals the loss of momentum in December.

 

While the power cuts in October and the Covid-19 flare-ups that have continued since mid-October increase the pressure on growth, the crisis potential of the real estate sector, which is experiencing liquidity problems, poses a threat to the overall economic growth. Resolution of the energy crisis will reduce the extent of the slowdown in the industry and provide recovery in the sectors. Reducing housing stocks is important for solving the cash crisis in the real estate sector, and domestic demand should support this.

 

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In this environment, the loosening movements of the People’s Bank of China continue to come. The PBOC cut the 7-day reverse repo rate from 2.2% to 2.1% and the 1-year MLF loan rate from 2.9% to 2.85%. A reduction in the LPR rate is expected on January 20. The PBOC continues its trend of lowering short- and medium-term rates to support growth and ease loans.

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