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China: Evergrande coupon payment and beyond

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Today, the $83.5 million debt settlement of Evergrande’s 5-year USD bond will be looked at. If the coupon payment is missed, it defaults within 30 days. The action that the company will take or not take today regarding this payment is also important for the future. Because although Evergrande’s subsidiary says that an agreement has been reached on interest payments, there is no clear information about this. However, there is no clear situation regarding how the bond payments will be made. Will there be a certain amount of deduction, postponement or installment? Of course, there is also this; Evergrande’s bonds have lost significant value, and those who hold the papers must also face depreciation. The risk of default on coupon payments also puts creditors at risk. State intervention is still an option, the extent of the crisis and how similar it will be to Lehman Brothers is still unknown.

 

FOMC decisions show that; “Land ho!” for tapering. The future will depend on the pace of the Fed and the risk of slowing the economy and non-Fed factors that could hold the Fed back are still a reservation. The market will not be bothered by a reasonable tapering rate at this stage. Currently, “slow tapering” is more desirable than “no tapering”, because if there is no tapering, something is going wrong in the economy.

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