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China: Industrial profits, commodity prices and growth

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The new Omicron variant has become a downside risk to the growth outlook for 2022 as any significant increase in COVID-19 cases could lead to tighter pandemic restrictions. Multiple transitions will impact the global economy in 2022. The COVID-19 health crisis is expected to go from pandemic to endemic, aided by rising global vaccination rates.

 

The annual profit of industrial companies in China increased by 9% in November. There has been a 38% increase in the 11-month period from the beginning of the year until today. We see that the most effective items are related to mining and energy. Because the high increase in raw material and energy prices this year had a high reflection on prices. On the other hand; Moderation in the year-on-year expansion rate reflected the recent increase in virus cases, which weighed on performance and impacted sales. Firms stated that measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 have reduced new order entries. Of course, the virus risk in question is more negative especially for the sectors that cannot provide price flexibility due to high cost factors and will be affected by the decreasing economic activity. The government’s infrastructure spending, on the other hand, will benefit raw material suppliers and the iron and steel industry, as it will mean more material use and make it durable. We will be talking about centrally driven growth.

 

Under all these conditions, the PBOC continues its tendency to keep monetary policy as loose as possible. The priority is to support growth through the financing channel. Therefore, the discounts on the RRR side will likely continue.

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Kaynak: Hibya Haber Ajansı

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