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China: Signals of slowdown in economy

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Retail sales and industrial production data from China reveal growing concerns about slowing growth. Reflecting the disruption of supply chains by the Covid -19 waves, we have the possibility that the Omicron variant will disturb the revival trends after the Delta wave. It should be noted at this point that virus concerns are also felt higher in Asia. Along with the risks that will derail the production recovery, the CPI jumping to 2.3% in this environment includes the potential for higher inflationary pressure within the scope of the producer cost potential, which is actually many times higher. If we look at the data dump in this environment; November retail sales, which are expected to increase by 4.9%, increased by 3.7%, while industrial production increased by 3.8%. While Chinese fixed investment growth receded to 5.2% in the first 11 months of the year, real estate investments fell to 6% from 7.2% in the first 10 months.

 

There are concerns that the rollback of spending from services to goods and any renewed supply chain disruption could create upward inflationary pressures. Any decrease in the labor supply associated with increased infections could also increase wages. Therefore, we will see global input cost inflation accelerate further. This potential will cause the production of sub-goods groups to not be evenly distributed. For example, automotive is one of the sectors that will have difficulties. On the other hand, energy and raw material supplies have an important place in the general production recovery, especially in terms of power supply and input usage. Failure to resolve supply problems and slowdown in production will naturally mean economic slowdown.

 

In real estate investments, there are problems with the Evergrande problem and its spread to the housing market. Due to the tightening of the financing rules in the market, we can monitor the disruption of housing investments, especially in the axis of the financial transmission mechanism. The ability of real estate companies to make interest and principal payments will be important, for example, we observed that some companies pay debts before the redemption date in order to differentiate their credit profiles. However, cash-strapped companies predominate.

 

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The People’s Bank of China lowered the RR rate and effectively added liquidity to the financial system to support growth. The central bank will continue to cut the RRR. In terms of growth, the Communist Party is likely to announce incentive and support packages. Growth appears to be supported by both the credit channel and the government incentives channel.

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