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Global: The bond yield curves reflet the inflation concerns

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It is observed that German bunds with negative rates also contributed to the recent rise in US bond rates, and within this framework, 10-year rates rose to -0.09% and approached the positive zone. Accordingly, there is a decrease in the amount of negative yield bonds. Although the movement in interest rates stemmed from inflation expectations, not economic growth dynamics, the movement accelerated, especially on the short-term side of the yield curve. The CPI data to be announced from the US and the Fed minutes are monitored in terms of the contraction and the course of inflation. We monitor the global economic recovery phenomenon and inflation risks together; There is a downward weighted risk balance in terms of growth and upwards in terms of inflation. We expect the short side of the yield curve to continue to be affected by rising inflation expectations.

 

US bond yield curve and German bund yield curve comparison with spreads in different maturities.. (Source: Bloomberg)

 

Along with the steepening in the short-term side, the upward trend in the general yield movement and the slope of the US yield curve continuing until the forward maturities should be taken into account. Concerns that inflation will remain higher than expected in the short-term, as well as longer-than-expected, seem to reflect on the market.

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