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Turkey: FX deposits fall last week

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According to the weekly data of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, total foreign currency deposits decreased by 1.51 billion dollars in the week of January 21, adjusted for the parity effect. Compared to the previous week, foreign currency deposits of resident real persons decreased by 1.37 billion dollars, and foreign currency deposits of domestic legal entities decreased by 140 million dollars.

 

In the given week, the foreign exchange accounts of domestic residents decreased from 234.2 billion dollars to 232.3 billion dollars. 0.5 billion dollars was withdrawn from legal person foreign currency accounts.

 

After 20 December, within the scope of TRY investment incentive measures, We monitor the effects of the currency protected deposit product introduced by President Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on local currency demand. Although the conversion of FX to TRY remains at a limited level, it is observed that the decline in foreign currency accounts accelerated during the process of participation of legal entities in withdrawals of real persons. On the other hand, we think that more predictability is needed regarding the value of the TRY, and we consider that the monetary policy uncertainty, which is not based on conventional criteria, is a source of reservation. It is also very important at this stage that the value of TRY is predictable for legal entities. The expected rise in inflation will cause TRY interest rates to remain very low in real terms.

 

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In Central Bank Governor Mr. Kavcıoğlu’s statements on “liraization” in the Inflation Report, we understand that he wishes to achieve financial stability and stabilization through increasing the use of lira-based products. For this reason, we will be monitoring the developments on the currency protected deposit product in terms of the de-dollarization process in the coming period. The financial dollarization rate is at 61.46% as of the week of January 21, we see a slight decrease from the rate that was 62.19% in the previous week. This rate was 55.1% in the same period of the previous year.

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