While Turkey’s industrial production in March increased by 16.6% compared to the same month of the previous year, with calendar adjusted data; Seasonal and calendar adjusted industrial production, on the other hand, increased by 0.7% compared to the previous month. According to the unadjusted data, there was an increase of 19.9% in industrial production compared to the same period of the previous year. Our estimation was that industrial production to increase by 15.7% on an annual basis and contract by 0.5% on a monthly basis in March.
Industrial production seems to be quite strong as it came above the general market expectation of 14.1% on an annual basis with adjusted data, but in general, it is normal that to see two-digit annual increases in this period of the year due to the base effect transferred from last year. In order to follow the trend, it will be more rational to evaluate monthly data, we can observe periodic accelerations and slowdowns from here. The abnormal conditions of the last year resulted in a low base effect, in this context, we will see very strong double-digit increases in industrial production especially in April and May. 2Q21 growth will also occur in double digits due to the base effect.
When we look at the details; While mining and quarrying contracted by 1.7% on a monthly basis, it increased by 14.8% on an annual basis. While 0.3% increase was observed in the manufacturing industry on a monthly basis, a growth of 17.2% was realized on an annual basis. In the electricity, gas and steam group, an increase of 7.3% was observed on a monthly basis, while the growth was 11.9% on an annual basis. On a monthly basis, energy increased by 6.2%, intermediate goods by 1.3% and non-durable consumer goods by 0.1%. Capital goods contracted by 1.7% and durable consumer goods by 1.1%. Considering the annual changes in the related items; Durable consumer goods increased by 29.8%, capital goods by 21.2%, intermediate goods by 18.8%, non-durable consumer goods by 11.1% and energy by 8.6%.
Of course, there are factors that pose downside risks in terms of industrial activity and general economic growth throughout the year. Although there was a closing effect as of April and May, the extent of this was not felt as it was in the previous year in terms of industry, both because of the immunity to the conditions and the production was not stopped. There was no effect in the current March data effects, as there was not much closure at that time, and this is evident from the rate of increase in the monthly data. The situation in monthly data seems important in terms of showing periodic developments within the year. The trend here must be sustainable in order for the improvement to continue and to strengthen the economic growth. With the double digit growth to be realized in 2Q21, 2021 growth will probably be realized above 5% with the help of the base effect from the low growth of the previous year.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı
Kaynak: Hibya Haber Ajansı
