Despite a mixed course compared to the previous month, the September real sector confidence index data announced by the Central Bank still maintains a strong trend. While RSCI decreased by 0.5 points to 113.4 in September; The seasonally adjusted RSCI, on the other hand, increased by 1.1 points to 113.3.
In this period, the manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate increased by 1 point to 78.1%; The seasonally adjusted CUR, on the other hand, was 77.8%.
When the diffusion indices of the survey questions that make up the index are analyzed, it is seen that the current total order amount, the total order amount in the last three months, fixed capital investment expenditures, and current product stock evaluations are effective in the upward trend of the index. The general trend, the export order quantity in the next three months, the export order quantity index in the next three months, the production volume in the next three months and the evaluations on total employment affected the index downwards.
The latest real sector leading data for the 3Q21 period confirms that the strong trend continued throughout the period. The economic activity, which has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, also reflects the increased business capacities of producers and is viewed as a strong component of the overall economic growth outlook. Despite the manufacturing industry PMI indicator, which showed a rapid increase in July and August and reached the level of 54.1 in the current data, we observed that the increase in industrial production has slowed down since July and there has been a periodic decline. Increasing costs, especially in the energy input used in the industry, also affect the production speed. Increasing demand within the framework of the increase in economic activity, on the other hand, is ahead of the supply levels, and the unequal supply speed also slows down the production rate.
The fact that the pandemic dynamics has eased in terms of the sector is positive for the continuity of the activity. On the other hand, since borrowing costs were above the levels of 2020 throughout the year, the rollover effects of the past periods were observed more frequently in loan outflows. The expectation of the continuation of the interest rate cuts made by the Central Bank yesterday shows that there may be a decrease in borrowing costs. However, new situations in exchange rates and inflationary pressure are of critical importance, especially in terms of the continuity of activity and the course of production costs. In terms of GDP growth, the year in general; Within the framework of components such as strong economic activity, increasing demand and industrial production, it is at the point of being strong periodically and annually. We maintain our 8.3% economic growth expectation for the whole year, taking into account the upside risk balance.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım-Enver Erkan
Hibya Haber Ajansı
Kaynak: Hibya Haber Ajansı
