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Turkey: Unemployment rate falls to 11.5% in September

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Unemployment rate in Turkey in September, which was 13.2% in the same month of the previous year, decreased by 1.7 points to 11.5%. When compared to the previous month, it is observed that the adjusted unemployment rate decreased by 0.3 points. While the unemployment rate among the young population is 21.5%; non-farm unemployment was realized as 13.3%.

 

When we look at the comparable periods, September 2020 – September 2021, it is seen that there was an increase of 2.4 points in the labor force participation rate between the relevant periods, with adjusted data. The workforce, which was 30 million 965 thousand people in the similar period of 2020, became 33 million 48 thousand people in September 2021. The labor force participation rate increased from 49.3% to 51.7%. Looking at the seasonally adjusted data; While the employment rate increased by 2.8 points to 45.8% compared to the same period of the previous year, seasonally adjusted employment increased by 426 thousand people compared to the previous month. The idle labor force rate decreased to 21.9%.

 

In addition to the unemployment rate, which is below the expected levels, we have observed volatility in the unemployment figures of Turkstat in recent months. In the labor market, volatility occurred in the numbers in the phase when the seasonal tourism effect came into play following the May closure and reopening. In this phase, there were visible effects especially in the employment of industry and services. We also saw that unemployment benefits and pandemic protections were reduced or ended almost during this period. Combined with the growth conditions in the economy and the increase in activity, a slight decrease in unemployment rates was observed in the summer period. Compared to August, there was a lower than expected unemployment rate. It was an expected phenomenon that the effect of tourism would decrease in September, and a slight increase is observed in the seasonal effects on the unemployment rate in the autumn period, after the effect of tourism in general. In this regard, the headline unemployment rate is positive in the sense that it indicates a decrease compared to the previous month.

 

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The course of the employment market confirms that the economy did not slow down much in the 3Q21 period and that the positive activity trend continues. Against this; A possible slowdown in the industry due to the global supply decline and rising raw material costs may pose some risk in 4Q21. We expect unemployment rates to continue at similar levels in the coming months.

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