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US: Bond yields price aggressive tightening

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Although the consensus regarding the first rate hike of the Central Bank is almost formed, there are also opinions that the generally accepted move may be more drastic. In this context, with the possibility of the Fed’s first interest rate step to be 50 basis points, the movement in bond yields gained momentum. While the 10-year bond yields reached 1.85%, the highest level since January 2020, we observed 1.06% in the 2-year bond yield. The movement in the 30-year bond reveals the plane spreading across the yield curve, with 2.18%, the highest level since June 2021.

 

From the wing of the Fed, opinions about the rate hike are expressed more frequently and intensely. Before the January 25-26 FOMC meeting, the front-loading movement started in terms of preparing the markets. The sale, which is directly reflected in the Treasury bonds upon the return of the MLK day holiday in the US, may continue if opinions regarding the technical steps of balance sheet reduction are also shared. US inflation of 7% also reveals income force factors. The FOMC’s growing concern about inflation may lead to the support of the March 15-16 interest rate move with a move to continue and further decrease the bonds on the balance sheet. In the deepening bond sale before the blackout week (the week before the Fed meeting, without a public announcement), the separation by maturities may again be possible, but the technical details will be based on the expectation of inflation and faster tightening, which may be permanent in the long term if inflation continues to surprise upwards at the first stage.

 

We expect the Fed to cut its asset purchases at the current rate, ending it in March and making the first rate hike.

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