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US: Employment market trends

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In the week ended November 13, the first seasonally adjusted unemployment benefits applications came in at 268K, down 1K from the previous week’s revised level. That’s 8K more than expected; The lowest level for initial requests since March 14, 2020, which is 256K. The previous week’s level was revised up 2K from 267K to 269K. The 4-week moving average was 272,750, down 5,750 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020, at 225,500. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 278K to 278,500. Continuing jobless claims fell unexpectedly to 2.08 million in the week ended Nov. The insured unemployment rate decreased to 1.5% as of the week ending November 6th.

 

It’s useful to follow the leading data analysis, as November’s NFP data will be seen as important ahead of the December FOMC for the Fed’s pacing criteria. The employment market is more vibrant, but there is still a serious employment gap. The dynamics are different, of course, there is a market that is trying to recover after Covid, rather than a market that lost employment due to Covid. It seems that more progress needs to be made in reaching the point of maximum employment.

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