In terms of sub-indexes; In a good omen for Friday’s official December labor market report, the employment subindex rose to 54.2 from 53.3, its highest reading since April 2021. The new orders index fell slightly to 60.4 from 61.5 in November. The prices paid sub-index fell from 82.4 to 68.2, a sign that disruptions in the supply chain are mitigating. This marked the lowest price index reading paid since November 2020 and the largest monthly drop in the index since March 2020.
In fact, the slowdown in the headline index can be evaluated in terms of reflecting the faltered image of the manufacturing industry despite strong demand. Against this; In some details in the sub-indices, the increase in employment indicates the continuity of the activity, while the decrease in prices and delivery times indicates the alleviation of the supply shortage. So actually, it’s good news for the Fed. Of course, inflationary pressures are still very high as the price index is at 68.2. But not as horrifying as the November reading of 82.4. It is not known whether bending in inflation is close to these dynamics; however, in a direction that will increase the hope of a regression in time warping. We anticipate inflation above the Fed target until 2024, in the context of ongoing global supply dynamics and monetary policy tightening to contain inflation. Sector is growing, production is balanced and demand is in strong regions with these dynamics. The effects of the supply chain should have a general dimension, not a periodic one, so that we can approach inflation more optimistically.
According to JOLTS data, the number of jobs open on the last business day of November decreased to 10,562 million. This reading came in below market expectations of 11,075 million, lower than October’s revised 11,091 million reading from 11,033 million. The official non-farm payrolls data on Friday did not give a clear indication ahead of time, but the positive employment sub-index indicated by the industrial data indicates that the recovery in the market continues. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.1% as of December, which will indicate the continuation of the post-pandemic recovery trend and the move to full employment rates.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı
Kaynak: Hibya Haber Ajansı