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US: Market approach to tightening phenomena

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While the threat of increasing inflation pushes the 10-year Treasury yields in the US to the highest levels of the last two years, we continue to monitor inflationary pressures and the situation of real returns. Normally; The route the Fed is expected to lay out at its meeting this week should include a tighter and more aggressive monetary policy stance. Therefore, as the tight monetary policy progresses, we will see the high liquidity released by the Fed in the pandemic decrease.

 

Cases at hand; What is promised for the Fed is the end of a rapid contraction and how much of it will meet at this stage. Well; If we go in order, we will look for answers to the following questions on Wednesday:

 

·        Do we immediately end our bond purchases at this stage? It’s unlikely because there’s no communication. The Fed will completely end its bond purchases in March at the planned pace.

·        Will the rate increase start in March? Very likely, even definitely. Communication and pricing has already been done. The rate matters.

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·        50 basis point rate hike? It’s not the base scenario, but I wouldn’t say it’s impossible to take the initiative in inflation. It was last done in 2000.

·        When does the balance sheet start to shrink? Not now, but the Fed won’t wait for the paint to dry either. The June – August period seems appropriate. The aftermath is important, this will happen not only when redeemed bonds are off the balance sheet, but also with QT. It will have an impact on long-term interest rates and mortgage rates.

 

As can be seen, we have evaluated the possibilities that are out of expectation. Every time the Fed goes out of the base scenario, it will affect the bond and stock markets. US stocks are stuck between balance sheet effects and hawkish Fed expectations. Omicron, the market sentiment turned negative in January due to policy and political concerns. The technology sector has already begun to feel uncomfortable with its risk aversion and interest rate sensitivity. The rotation is deepening, there is a Central bank that has withdrawn the growth-oriented liquidity, and there is still some slackening somewhere in the world: China.

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