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US: Service activity jumps to record high in October

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Business activity in the US services sector continued to grow at a record pace in October, with the ISM services PMI rising to 66.7 from 61.9 in September. This reading beat the market expectation of 62 by a wide margin. While the price index rose from 77.5 to 82.9, pointing to increasing inflationary pressures, the employment index decreased from 53 to 51.6. The increase in new orders from 63.5 to 69.7 is positive as it reveals strong sectoral service demand.

 

Supply chain disruptions and difficulties in labor/material shortages can have a capacity-limiting impact, which may affect business conditions in general, which remains a downside risk. Of course, in service provision, although we do not see the use of direct production inputs as much as manufacturing, there are factors with lower coefficients. For example, while energy costs and shortages are a problem in terms of transportation; Factors originating from the global food supply may also be factors in terms of catering services. Shifting growth momentum and a common theme of persistent supply constraints are now themes in terms of activity and inflationary pressures. However, the decreasing Covid-19 Delta wave effect is accelerating the sectoral activity positively.

 

Therefore; The activity is at satisfactory levels, but when we evaluate it from the Fed’s point of view, it also includes details that will form the basis for persistent inflation concerns. We’ll probably watch tapering statements at the FOMC tonight, but our main focus will be on Powell’s approach to the inflation thesis. An inflation issue that is feared to be permanent may be discussed further in the FOMC.

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