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Global: Putin announces military operation

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Putin announced the launch of a “military operation” in Ukraine. Biden announced today that he will announce “additional sanctions” on Russia, while the Ukrainian Foreign Minister described Putin’s decision as “the beginning of a large-scale invasion”. Brent crude rose to $100 for the first time since 2014 after news of Russia’s entry into the Donbas. While sharp upward movements were observed in the commodity group, especially in the energy and food group, the Nasdaq 100 futures pointed to the bear market for the first time since March 2020. Demand for safe assets is advancing. While transactions on the Moscow stock exchange are suspended today, the ruble is at historic low against the dollar in the interbank market.

 

24/02/22 Future indices… Source: Bloomberg

 

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24/02/22 TRY, EUR and US 10-year bond yields Source: Bloomberg

 

24/02/22 commodity prices… Source: Bloomberg

 Undoubtedly, if these prices were to be effective in the commodity market for a long time, an inflation vortex would be difficult to manage. We may see a movement in energy inflation and food inflation depending on the effect of supply. Plus, these two items will push each other up in the geopolitical crisis due to the current interaction and supply dynamics. Since Russia’s move towards separatist regions has brought the crisis to the next stage, the dynamics related to this now have to be evaluated. Possible game-changing effects. The markets, on the other hand, react quickly and it will be possible to make a healthier assessment when the alarm situation passes.

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