The unemployment rate in Turkey in November, which was 13% in the same month of the previous year, decreased by 1.8 points to 11.2%. When compared to the previous month, it is seen that the adjusted unemployment rate remained the same. While the unemployment rate among the young population was 22.3%; non-farm unemployment was realized as 13.1%.
When we look at the comparable periods, November 2020 – November 2021, it is seen that there was an increase of 3 points in the labor force participation rate between the relevant periods, with adjusted data. The workforce, which was 31 million 216 thousand people in the similar period of 2020, became 33 million 632 thousand people in November 2021. The labor force participation rate increased from 49.5% to 52.5%. Looking at the seasonally adjusted data; While the employment rate increased by 3.5 points to 46.1% compared to the same period of the previous year, seasonally adjusted employment increased by 228 thousand people compared to the previous month. The idle labor force rate decreased to 22.1%.
Although the decrease in the general trend of unemployment rate, which we have observed for a while, has increased due to the increase in the activity of the sector in services especially after the opening, some structural difficulties and risks occur due to the shift of weight to the service sector side in the sectoral rotation and the transfer effect in the idle workforce. As of November, we observe this effect in the neutralization of the losses from the temporary impact of the tourism sector. Youth unemployment is still very high and idle unemployment continues to hover around 22%. At the point of long-term unemployment, the fact that this decrease is more weighted on the services and sub-sectors may indicate that more people are turning to these sectors. The recovery on the industrial and export side is supportive, and it can be expected that the volatility factors in the exchange rate will come into play. We care about the risks arising from the exchange rate, especially at the point of cost and production.
There are differences between whether the rotation in unemployment is due to recovery and whether it is due to deterioration. The shifting effect in value-added and high-quality sectors, especially in relatively well-paid positions, is also important in that it reflects the changing business and payment capacities of companies. This is related to the general course of the economy. In this context, while the increase in employment in the service sector during periods of economic difficulties is mostly due to temporary, income-generating jobs, these people tend to return to their main occupations and sectors when conditions improve. In fact, there is a similar effect on the resignation rate in JOLTS sub-items in the USA, and this rotation should be taken into account in headline employment changes. In our case, the rotation between high-paying jobs and low-paid jobs should be evaluated from a similar perspective. As a result, there are too many firm-related uncertainty factors, and this may in fact carry risks that will cause the increase in the unemployment rate in general to increase both narrowly and broadly. Macroeconomic difficulties and market-related conditions that will determine firm risks have a decisive place in the overall capacity of the economy to do and create business. We would like to emphasize the importance of structurally correct economic planning in the improvement of structurally comprehensive, long-term unemployment and youth unemployment.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım-Enver Erkan
Hibya Haber Ajansı
Kaynak: Hibya Haber Ajansı