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Turkey: I/P increases by 8.9% in September

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In September, industrial production in Turkey increased by 8.9% compared to the same month of the previous year, according to calendar adjusted data; Seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production decreased by 1.5% compared to the previous month. According to unadjusted data, industrial production increased by 8.8% compared to the same period of the previous year. Our forecast was for industrial production to increase by 13% yoy in September, adjusted for data.

 

Industrial production seems to be below our expectations with current realizations. We observe that the monthly and annual figures in industrial production, which has been in a strong growth trend since April 2020, point to a periodical slowdown, but it remains in the strong area in the general trend plane. In this context, the dampening in domestic demand, especially due to the recent increases in the exchange rate, may be subject to periodic effects. On the other hand, global supply cuts and price pressures point to difficulties especially in production input and energy imports. Thus; A slight pullback in domestic demand explains the contraction on a monthly basis beyond expectations. However, annual growth figures are still quite strong on the industry side. It is seen that export support also makes a significant contribution.

 

When we look at the details; mining and quarrying increased by 2.2% on a monthly basis, while it increased by 7.9% on an annual basis. While the manufacturing industry contracted by 1.6% on a monthly basis, there was a 9.7% growth on an annual basis. In the electricity, gas and steam group, there was a 3.2% contraction on a monthly basis, while the annual growth was 1%. On a monthly basis, durable goods increased by 5.5%. Capital goods contracted by 5%, energy by 3%, intermediate goods by 1.1% and non-durable consumer goods by 0.4%. Looking at the annual changes in the related items; Intermediate goods increased by 13.2%, durable consumer goods increased by 10.7%, non-durable consumer goods increased by 8.4%, capital goods increased by 3.9% and energy increased by 1.5%.

 

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Export support seems to be important in terms of production outlook, and we expect strong ground to be maintained. On the other hand; After September and October, we think that there may be difficulties in input imports due to global supply and inflation problems, exchange rate-driven cost increases, and a demand-driven slowdown in production costs. Within the framework of the effect of the exchange rates, the levels reached mean that the support of domestic demand will decrease. With the strong support of the export and production outlook, we expect the rest of the year to be remarkably positive in terms of growth. We forecast 3Q21 growth of over 5% and full-year GDP growth of 9.6%.

 

While the recent increase in the exchange rate has pushed up the inflation expectations, the continuation of the rate cut expectations despite this pushes the exchange rate and inflation expectations up again. We analyze that the Central Bank is ready to make lower rate cuts within the framework of a limited space emphasis. The latest exchange rate developments and inflation outlook do not normally allow this path. We expect a 100 basis point cut next week within the framework of the Central Bank’s current rate cut trend.

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