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Turkey: Limited decline in foreign currency deposits

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According to the data of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, foreign currency deposits decreased by 80 million dollars in the week of January 14 to 234.2 billion dollars. According to the data set adjusted for parity, there was a decrease of 1.4 billion in foreign currency deposits.

 

In the related week, it was observed that foreign currency deposits of real persons increased, albeit to a limited extent. Accordingly, foreign currency deposits of real persons increased by 39 million dollars to 146.03 billion dollars. When the parity effect is adjusted, it was seen that there was a decrease of 829 million dollars in foreign currency deposits of real persons. Foreign currency deposits of legal entities decreased by 119 million dollars. Adjusting for the parity effect, it was observed that there was a decrease of 568 million dollars in foreign currency deposits of legal entities.

 

After 20 December, within the scope of TRY investment incentive measures, we monitor the effects of the currency protected deposit product introduced by President Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on local currency demand. While a more stable movement is observed after the dollar rate regressed from 18’s to 13’s on the relevant dates, we also observe that foreign currency deposits are still far from being resolved from record levels. In this context, the conversion of FX to TRY still remains at a limited level. We observe that the transition to foreign exchange-protected deposits is mostly done by opening a direct TRY account. At this point, although the scope of the currency-protected deposit product has been extended to legal entities, we know that companies must have foreign currency in order to make foreign currency debt payments, exchange rate and maturity balance, and raw material imports. It is also very important at this stage that the value of TRY is predictable for legal entities. In terms of real persons; We see the unbalanced and unsustainable situation in terms of inflation realizations and interest rates as a source of reservation at the point of transition from FX to TRY. The financial dollarization rate was 62.19% as of the week of January 14, compared to 55% in the same period of the previous year.

 

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Under the assumption that there will be no change in monetary policy in the first quarter, the band movement in the exchange rate may continue. The high demand of those who entered the new system in the first weeks and the return of the money of the investors who preferred the 3-month maturity option towards March will create more significant movements in the exchange rate, especially in the second quarter. Turkey’s wide real yield gap, the worst among emerging markets, is putting pressure on the currency as advanced world central banks prepare to tighten monetary policy to contain inflation.

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