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US: Mixed dataset ahead of Thanksgiving and Black Friday

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If we look at the data that has been put forward to be announced with a complete package due to the Thanksgiving Day;

 

Initial jobless claims in regular government programs fell 71K seasonally in the week ended November 20 to 199K. The median estimate was 260K submissions. The first applications, which were 216K before the onset of Covid-19 in February 2020, indicate that the labor market is strengthening the recovery trend. As a matter of fact, the lowest number of unemployment claims since 1969 has been achieved, a milestone in terms of not only the best post-pandemic but also the best in 52 years.

 

While we see progress in the sustainability and maximum employment phase, it is necessary to mention the deficits. There are still 5-6 million people before the employment gap created when the most damaging effects of Covid exploded in April 2020. Return to work has accelerated as the economy reopens more broadly, but employers still have not filled positions homogeneously. Childcare remains a major barrier, an impact that limits the return of women and families with children to work. It is necessary to re-emerge Covid cases and to monitor global measures again. There may still be reservations in contact works. On the other hand, in terms of accelerating production, supply and transportation should return to normal dynamics. The temporary nature of the unemployment situation is more understandable due to the recovery dynamics. Increasing inflation, on the other hand, will reduce the return to work in the sense that if salaries cannot keep up with the increase in inflation, it will erode the purchasing power. Employers therefore have to pay higher. NFP, which will show the job market situation for November, will be crucial before the Fed’s December meeting. We will look at these indicators combined with the state of inflation.

 

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According to the GDP revision (second reading), the US economy grew by 2.1% annualized QoQ in 3Q21, in line with expectations. This represents an upward revision of 0.1% from the 3Q21 GDP growth forecast published in October. The slowdown in real GDP was driven by the slowdown in consumer spending in 3Q21. The resurgence of COVID-19 cases has resulted in new restrictions and delays in reopening businesses in parts of the country. In 3Q21, government assistance payments in the form of donable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and welfare benefits to households all decreased. The increase in GDP reflected increases in private inventory investment, PCE, state and local government spending and non-residential fixed investment, partially offset by decreases in residential fixed investment, federal government spending and exports. Since the data includes the past period, it is not the kind that will be effective in decision making.

 

If we look at the more recent high frequency data; Durable goods orders fell 0.5% month-on-month in October, compared to market expectations for a small 0.2% increase in sales. This indicates that the 0.4% contraction in orders recorded in September is accelerating. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.5% month-on-month, but above expectations for a 0.2% monthly growth rate. The divergence in narrow-scoped indicators shows that the contraction in the headline is due to transportation and defense items, and explains the double-digit decline in aircraft and spare parts orders. The situation of the items affecting the growth is positive.

 

The problem in the industry continues and its reflections on the final goods side due to the lack of raw materials are especially reflected in the durable consumption mode. In particular, the automotive situation may have a slowing effect due to deficiencies in the supply of semiconductors and components. Sourcing from China is a decisive factor. Inflation and the lack of goods in the market will also cause a slowdown in demand.

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